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Endgame

Hello readers, it’s good to be back at the keys and even better to be resuming the dissection of varying international circumstances. When examining the Syrian conflict I tend to first place a spotlight on Assad: Can he run? Will his funds save him? Is there an option for Assad outside of simply winning or losing the war? The answer to each of these questions: No. Assad has more money, arguably more military might, but an even worse international standing than former Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi, and as you may recall he received no asylum in his final days. It is certain this thought haunts Assad each night before he sleeps and every morning he awakes.

His desperation has led him to seek help from abroad via a strategy now commonly utilized on the international stage: the portrayal of opposition as a terrorist force. His portrayal of the FSA as terrorists serves to invite anti-sunni extremists from over the borders to engage in a “Holy War” against the Sunni majority, for Assad’s Alawaite sect makes up roughly 12% of the islamic population in Syria. Assad needs the conflict to be portrayed as a holy war against terrorists lest he be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Declaring the FSA as a terrorist organization isn’t entirely accurate however, while the FSA has fought alongside terrorist groups such as Jabhat al-Nursa the FSA is not linked to al-Qaeda. Further, if and when Assad falls, the groups maintain polarizing views on what direction Syria will head in post-Assad, which will likely lead to further years of civil strife. Had the FSA been armed early on by the United States, Al-Nursa’s involvement would not have been needed by the FSA for military support against the Syrian Government Army, and thus the call to global jihadists and international mercenaries would have likely been weak if present at all. The mess the United States feared of Syria should the rebels be armed: it being a state supporter of terrorism, supporter of Iran, have a grudge against Israel and the U.S, that human rights violations could occur within the borders amidst political distrust and corruption, yet these are all aspects of present Syria with the Assad regime. Had the rebels been armed before their desperation lead them into Jihadist hands it can be argued that the FSA’s influence would have remained prominent and allowed Al-Nursa no time to establish itself as a prominent force in the nation. Had Nursa not grown and the United States stepped in as it did in Libya, the conflict likely would have concluded hastily and with less bloodshed.

If terrorist influence has finally grown to the point where the U.S. believes the situation should be reevaluated, this could be the last opportunity to aid the FSA before the conflict spirals further into civil conflict corrupting international volunteers and spitting them back out as hardened soldiers of fortune, possibly bent on wreaking havoc abroad. The United States has an obligation as a world superpower to help where needed, yet it is common for nations in such a position to do so only when personal interest is being served. In this case personal interest would have been served with aid to the FSA and their eventual victory possibly leading to a strong bond with the new Syria and an additional ally in the region, yet for once when the right thing was to get involved we didn’t. The nations track record of interjecting, ranging from Honduras, to Vietnam, to Iran is despicable yet eerily consistent, but when the time comes to really provide needed and requested help, particularly on a military scale, the United States somehow falls through. My hope is that some kind of foreign power, if not the United States, will aid the FSA before its dwindling influence fades to nothing, allowing for Nursa to become the primary force battling Assad, opening the door for a much more likely Jihadist home base when Assad topples. -Shivite12

Concerning torture allegations

Lately the media has been highlighting Guantanamo bay conditions and allegations that the US government is responsible for human rights abuses against the inmates. Most recently the subject of “force feedings,” have been a hot-button topic leaving many in the public questioning their continued support of an overtly violent war prison run and supervised by those who supervise our own nation. At a press conference last year well-regarded human-rights activist Madea Benjamin became a national and international sensation when she was escorted from President Obama’s appearance for heckling of the president concerning these allegations of prisoner torture. While the president can be applauded for his even allowing a dialogue between himself and Benjamin, the public still awaits the infamous “closing of Guantanamo,” as was promised by the Big O himself in his campaign platform early on. For many Americans its beginning to feel that by the time these allegations are unavoidable and need to be addressed  the President will already be out of office, and thus the “passing of the buck,” will have ensued elongating the publics wait and shirking responsibility for the Obama administration. Madea’s interview w/ Evelyn Nieves @ Global Possibilities  can be found at the following link: http://www.globalpossibilities.org/meet-the-woman-who-stood-up-to-obama-and-made-world-news/
-Shivite12

Dispute among the ranks VS. Syrian Govt.

The conflict in Syria has devolved from what was widely viewed as a fight for freedom against the tyranny of a dictatorial family line, into what many Western and Eastern powers consider being between a rock and a hard place. The rebel movement has become dominated by Al-Qaeda sympathizing groups, namely Jabhat al-Nursa and its’ recently renegade and more extreme offshoot: The Islamic state of Iraq and Syria(ISIS). Commenting on the situation CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen stated: “Al-Zawahiri is clearly fed up with ISIS’s open rejection of his overall leadership of the al Qaeda network. Moreover, he is likely quite concerned about how ISIS is alienating ordinary Syrians by a brutal campaign that has involved the public beheading of opponents and the imposition of Taliban-style rule on the population, including the banning of smoking, music and unveiled women in public.” With one side of the conflict being lead by a genocidal tyrant and the other by a dangerous and unstable terror group unprepared for a conflict, or Holy War, of such magnitude. Observing states debating aid are left with the choice of who to support, and also must consider the future of Syria should their supported side victor or collapse. -Shivite12

(title link leads to HuffPost article with elaboration on this struggle among world observers)

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